Labour’s Migration Advantage

Last week, our Director, Josh Simons, was on Sky talking to Sophy Ridge about new Labour Together polling on asylum and migration — you can see a couple of clips here and here.

It is often said that the debate around immigration favours the Conservatives and that Labour is vulnerable to attacks on migration. Our new polling suggests the debate around immigration and asylum in fact hinders the Conservatives and helps Labour.

This poll simulated a debate between Labour and the Conservatives on Labour’s asylum policies. First, we set out Labour’s “five point plan” to deal with asylum. Then we subjected those plans to a Conservative attack (drawing on language from Suella Braverman in a Daily Express article in September). And finally, we presented a rebuttal form the Labour Party (focusing on the cost of the asylum system and highlighting Labour’s plans to stop the smuggler gangs).

The results were overwhelming. Compared to a control group (who did not see Labour’s policies, the Conservative attack or the Labour rebuttal), Labour Together found that: 

When asked who would best handle the asylum and immigration system, Labour’s lead grew to 25 points (39% Labour vs 14% Conservative) - more than double Labour’s 12-point lead amongst the control group. 

On voting intention, Conservative support fell by 3 points with Conservative voters becoming more likely to support Reform UK. Meanwhile, Labour’s support rose by 2 points. This translates to a 5-point increase in Labour’s overall polling lead.

Methodology

Labour Together commissioned a poll with a nationally representative sample of 4,206 adults in Great Britain, carried out by YouGov. Fieldwork took place between 2nd and 4th October 2023. 

All respondents were asked what they thought the most important issues facing the country were (including immigration), whether they thought the policies of the main political parties on asylum were too harsh or too soft, and what they thought the priorities for the asylum system should be. They were then randomly divided into two groups: a Test group and a Control group. 

The test group saw a description of Labour’s five point plan on asylum. They then saw the following Tory attack on the policy:

“Labour’s plans mean Britain will accept 100,000 migrants from the EU each and every year. They will cancel the Rwanda programme - which is our best way of stopping the boats. Instead, they will go to the EU and take as many migrants as the EU wants. Keir Starmer’s plans will make illegal migration the easiest way of getting into Britain. And they will put the keys to Britain’s immigration system in the EU’s hands. We’ve always known Keir Starmer wants to rejoin the EU. Now we have the proof.”

Respondents were then shown the following Labour rebuttal:

“The government is chasing headlines and not getting a grip. Now we’re spending £3bn a year on putting refugees up in hotels because our migration system has failed. There is only one way to stop the small boat crossings: we have to stop the criminal gangs. They are undermining our border security. And they are putting lives at risk. This government has failed to go after the gangs. No smugglers are being arrested or charged. Their profits are soaring. Labour will go after the gangs and stop the problem at its root. That means a new Security Agreement with the EU to support better cross-border police operations and give stronger powers for the UK’s police and border force. To stop the boats, we have to stop the gangs.”

They were then asked for Voting Intention, and their views on which party would best handle asylum and immigration.

The control group did not see the policies, the Tory attack or the Labour rebuttal. They were asked for their Voting Intention, and their views on which party would best handle asylum and immigration.